2011年8月31日 星期三

Gold Skying Because of Bernanke Desperation

kingworldnews.com

Stephen Leeb:

With gold surging roughly $40, now trading above $1,825 and silver over $41, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb to get his thoughts on where things are headed. When asked about the reason for the big move in gold Leeb replied, “I think that there is no doubt that the strong move in gold is the anticipation of more Fed action. More Fed action means more dollars, means more currency out there. Gold is really in the early innings right now. When inflation in this country hits 8%, 10%, 12%, then you might say gold is in a later inning. Maybe then it will be in the 6th or 7th inning, I know this sounds crazy, but it’s true.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“I mean gold right now, it’s really in the early innings and until you start to see inflation take off, it will still be no more than the mid innings. This is a bull market that I think is destined to go much, much higher, ditto with silver. Any of the monetary metals are probably going to be the only game in town for the foreseeable future.

Bernanke, I don’t want to use the word desperate, but I think he wants to get a consensus on what else he can do to help the economy. When push comes to shove, the only real tool he has is to print more money and indeed that’s what he wants to do. I think at the last meeting it was tough to get a positive vote on that and this meeting he wants to have a fuller discussion, he wants to bring people around to his way of thinking.

I think that initially the read on Bernanke’s statement was negative because he didn’t specify anything, but when people realized an extra day (for the September Fed meeting), that’s a very, very big deal. The markets right now are picking up on that.

The reaction in the gold market has been appropriately positive because bear in mind Eric, we can print all of the dollars we want, but the Europeans are not going to stand by. I mean they want to export too. Everyone else wants to do the same....

So the printing presses are going to be turned on in the US as Bernanke feels he has no other choice. This is what his studies of the (Great) Depression tells him. This is what the second day of the Fed meeting is all about. But the US is not the only country in the world, most other non-resource based economies are going to be trying the same thing. In other words, it’s a race to the bottom. It relates to gold because the more paper currency you print the more valuable gold becomes.”

When asked about silver specifically Leeb had this to say, “Well silver and copper are both starting to trade very well. The Chinese are starting to take a very big stake in silver and they will continue to buy silver. They (the Chinese) basically control the solar manufacturing market right now and they want to apply those manufacturing skills. So far they’ve been applying them abroad, but they are going to start applying them to China themselves and that means they’re going to have to start accumulating a lot of silver.

I think we are on the airport runway as far as the silver market goes and people are going to be very surprised when silver fairly easily goes through $50. People think of $50 as this incredible brick-like resistance, no way. It’s going past $50 and it’s going to continue to go up. It’s got two massive drivers, its monetary value and its criticality in many, many industrial applications, ranging from solar to the computer keyboard on your desk Eric.”

金銀價企穩

金價泡沬了嗎 ?

由二百幾美元升去六百幾美元, 好多人走去沽金, 諗住跌返五百蚊樓下才去買返 !
金升去八百美元, 又好多人走去沽金, 諗住呢次無錯啦, 80年的高位呀嘛 !
金升去一千美元, 又一班人走去沽金, 呢次無死啦, 金跌返去七百美元 !
金又升去一千二百美元, 又一班人走去沽金, 還不是泡沬 ?
金升去一千四百美元, 又一班人走去沽金, 等一千才買嘛 !
金升去一千八百美元, 你們癲了嗎 ? 泡沬就來爆啦 !

宋鴻兵說, 金去到一萬美元都唔出奇 !

2011年8月30日 星期二

6000元化水 破產者斥分化

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】港府向市民派發6000元的安排混亂,更有分化破產人士之嫌。破產管理署署長早前表明不會向其擔任受託人的破產個案申索6000元作還債,但其他受託人則可自行決定,涉及1.3萬名破產人士。有破產者接獲擔任受託人的律師行發出信件,列明該6000元屬「破產後取得的財產」必須全數交出,批評當局製造分化,認為應一視同仁地還富於民。

市況波動 基金弱肉強食 大鱷食細鱷

蘋果日報

本報訊】 8月市況大起大落,對冲基金勁損手之餘亦出現弱肉強食情況,細鱷(規模較小的對冲基金)也淪為大鱷點心!有對冲基金經理坦言,業界現傾向持現金保留實力,只放小量注碼於枱面短炒,一遇風吹草動大家已識鬥快「閃」。 記者:李嘉麟

對冲基金精於藉波動市「搵食」,但絕大部份基金年初至今表現慘淡,據彭博資料顯示, 538隻以中港股市為目標的對冲基金,僅 8隻錄正回報, 530隻出現虧損,虧損逾三成者達 8隻,其中西京投資旗下的中國基金,截至上周五止今年累蝕 15.4%,單是本月跌幅已達 15.68%,高於今年跌幅,反映本月投資環境嚴峻。

西京蝕 16% 惠理輸 9%

此外, 451隻以亞太地區為目標的對冲基金,今年錄得正回報的亦不足 10隻,表現最差的蝕足 36%。屬這類別的金手指惠理旗下的惠理價值基金 A,今年累蝕 9.1%,截至 25日止的 8月份就已蝕 12.6%,即是說該基金表現栽在本月。
知情人士透露,基金為自保,連同業亦不放過,規模較小的對冲基金成為「撳錢」對象。基金界人士稱,上周一基金重倉的水泥、濠賭、保障房概念股慘遭洗倉,恒指卻由午後最多插水 352點變倒升 86點收場,正是大鱷食細鱷的近期經典。他解釋,大鱷熟悉同業操盤手法,有不少對冲基金利用期指淡倉為手上持倉作對冲,慘變兩頭輸。
市場短炒者又豈只對冲基金!連舉足輕重的新加坡主權基金淡馬錫,亦由長線投資者變成「炒鬼」。據聯交所股權披露,上月初在 3.63元大舉減持 51.88億股中行( 3988)股份的淡馬錫,在上周一( 22日)卻以每股平均價 2.972元增持 9711.7萬股股份,涉資 2.89億元,好倉持股由 6.96%增至 7.07%。

豐盛金融資產管理董事黃國英表示,港股本月經歷大幅波動後已逐步回復正常,短線有機會上試 20300點水平。不過,大家操盤時間明顯縮短,旗下基金長倉策略主要以藍籌搭強勢股,但市況逆轉會第一時間減磅。


傅成玉:推QE3經濟會更差

好多人還以為推出QE3是好事, 其實是迫美元貶值而輸出通脹 !

文匯報

香港文匯報訊  (記者 廖毅然) 雖然煉油虧損擴大,但中石化(0386)的中期業績勝市場預期,昨日股價最多升8.26%,是表現最好的藍籌股。部分大行昨日亦乘勢唱好,預期下半年會有 更好表現。中石化董事長傅成玉昨日卻警告,未來3-5年全球經濟會很糟糕,因此已對未來10年的發展策略重新作出部署,並提前融資。

提前融資 重新部署策略避險

 中石化周日宣布,準備發行規模達200億元(人民幣,下同)的公司債及300億元的A股可轉債,合 共籌資最多500億元。集團列明當中A股可轉債的用途,將投放於液化天然氣(LNG)等項目,但對於公司債的用途則未有明言。傅成玉昨日便補充指,由於未 來全球經濟將很糟糕,因此要提前做好準備以規避未來的風險。

內地發債籌500億 不會在港發

 雖然美國並未落實會否實施第三輪量化寬鬆貨幣政策(QE3),但傅成玉已警告,一旦實施,環球經濟 會更差,中國的貨幣政策會越來越收緊,因此並非今天不需要錢就不融資。中石化財務總監王新華則指,200億元的公司債中,100億用於償還債務,100億 用於補充資本金。由於通脹壓力不斷加大,預計中央會更加收緊,未來的融資成本會上升,因此趁目前利率較低而先作融資。他同時表示,未來不會在港發債。

中期業績勝預期 大行齊唱好

 中石化上半年業績勝預期,純利增長11.9%至411.7億元,雖然煉油業務的虧損於次季擴大至 116億元,但仍較市場預測少。不利因素消除後,其H股昨日高見7.6港元,收市報7.49港元,升6.7%。部分大行乘勢唱好,美銀美林指,下半年油價 將較上半年回落,中石化煉油損失有望減少。

 花旗更指出,煉油業務的虧損於次季已達高峰,若布蘭特期油價格回落至每桶107美元,更有可能於第四季達到收支平衡。另一方面,通脹減弱有助推動中央開放定價機制。

成品油定價機制或加快改革

 傅成玉昨日則認為,下半年油價仍然在每桶90-110美元的高位徘佪,若油價高於每桶90美元,集 團的煉油業務將會虧損。回顧上半年,煉油業務出現重大虧損,主要因6月份油價高漲。他強調,美國若推行QE3,將進一步推高大宗商品的價格。但他同時透 露,內地有望加快對成品油定價機制的改革步伐,有機會出現比預期更好的結果。


2011年8月29日 星期一

金價過山車 避險功能成疑

大家手持實物坐定定 !

hk.news.yahoo.com

【經濟日報專訊】金價上周劇烈波動,數天內高低波幅達200美元,令市場擔心備受追捧的黃金前景,更指近期黃金波動如股市,或暫時失去避險功能。

黃金升勢未盡?抑或泡沫隱現?好淡兩派自然各有理據。好友指黃金需求強勁,9月份更是傳統黃金旺季,加上歐美經濟不穩,金價可望在今年內突破2,000美元大關。淡友卻指金市已有泡沫,未來數月將有重大調整,期貨交易亦顯示較多投資者打賭金價下跌。

金價上周如坐過山車,由周二(23日)1,913.5美元的歷史新高,3天內暴瀉200美元,周四(25日)低見1,704美元。金價下挫,其中一個原因是芝加哥商品交易所(CME)本月第二度增加期金孖展按金,加上對冲基金大舉平倉套利所致。

中印需求強勁 歐美政策難測

盡管如此,不少分析師仍期望金價年底衝破2,000美元大關。Hinde Capital總裁Ben Davies相信,黃金實質需求強勁,力撑金價破2,000美元。

巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)黃金分析師Suki Cooper亦指,短期因素只會暫時令金價受壓,未來金市的重點,始終是中國和印度的強大需求,加上9月屬傳統黃金旺季,中印買家將支持金價再衝新高。

環球經濟前景仍不明朗,亦將利好金價。貝萊德(BlackRock)基金經理Catherine Raw指,市場質疑歐美領袖處理債務危機的能力,在金融政策方向變得難以預測下,資金未來數月仍會流向金市,推動金價上升。

不過,淡友卻大潑冷水,指金價調整期已到。施羅德私人銀行(Schroders Private Banking)總裁Rupert Robinson指,過去34個交易日金價升了27%,以每天12美元的速度上漲,未來顯然不可能持續下去,料將跌回1,600至1,650美元水平。

標普首席技術策略師Mark Arbeter亦同樣預期,金價將出現重大調整,下試1,450美元水平。

好友轉軚 期金顯示大幅調整

年初曾呼籲讀者持金的《Bullish Review of Commodity Insiders》出版人Steve Briese,更一改其好友立場,指黃金走勢圖直綫上升,是典型的投機泡沫,長遠來說,最終只會出現長時間的下挫。

Briese續稱,期金淨短倉交易大增,這些「聰明錢」打賭金價下挫,而看好金價上升的主要為投機者。他預期金價將大幅調整33%,至1,250美元附近。

無論金價升或跌,分析普遍預期金價將持續波動,因為對已達1,700或1,800美元水平的金價來說,100美元已變得微不足道,加上隨着大圍市場變得波動,金價上落100美元的日子亦將大增。


更多經濟日報網站內容, 請登入hket.com


No Truth In “Chinese” Rumour

Quoted from silvergoldsilver:

Friday, August 26, 2011Exclusive: China or one Chinese buyer....
just bought ALL OF PERTH MINTS 1 oz Coins.

This is not a joke.

Contact them for yourself, as my dealer said there is an 80% chance that China just cleared out the perth mint for all of the 2011
1 oz supply, especially the Dragons.

IF true, we should be hearing about this from large suppliers shortly.

www.perthmintbullion.com

There is no truth to this claim at all.

In reference to the 1oz Dragon silver bullion coins, dealers in Australia and our main overseas markets of Europe and America who have supported the Australian Lunar Series II over the past four years have been allocated coins. The numbers they will receive is directly related to the quantity of coins they have taken in previous years of this 12-year Series.

We have stocks of 2012 Australian Kookaburra 1oz silver bullion coins (500,000 mintage) which we are supplying to dealers as they are ordered.

There is no mintage limit to 2012 Australian Koala 1oz silver bullion coins, which will be launched on 1 November 2011 and be offered for sale until the end of 2012.

Accumulator翻叮 輸死內地豪客

蘋果日報

【本報訊】金融海嘯時輸死富豪大戶的 Accumulator(累計股票期權,坊間稱為 I kill you later),近兩月又再肆虐股市。據了解,由於大市經過大幅回落,不少股份的股價已逼近海嘯價,投資者除了蠢蠢欲動買貨之外,就連衍生投資產品市場也活躍起來。市場人士指,近日有關 ELN(股票掛鈎票據)及 Accumulator的查詢明顯增加,但專家認為市況波動,投資者要有心理準備隨時接貨。

傳涉國壽 觸發股價暴瀉

向來為散戶愛股的中國人壽( 2628),上周除因業績差勁拖累股價下跌,據悉,是有內地客承造國壽 Accumulator無力接貨被迫斬倉,觸發股價暴瀉。較早前有投行即推出多種息率極吸引的 ELN向客戶兜售,市場人士指,「最誇張係 48厘(年息計),但要 95折接貨, 88折接貨就超過 20厘, 85折接貨的都有近 20厘。」一名歐資行基金經理說︰「國壽仍有一班長期捧場客,跌穿了,他們不介意接貨,而且息又高,所以有一定市場。」
大和資本市場亞洲股票衍生產品銷售執行董事盧穗欣表示,「早陣子做得最多 ELN或 Accumulator的,主要是內銀股、滙控( 005)及石油股,甚至盈富基金( 2800)都有。」他解釋,上周突然有國壽的 ELN面世,主因股價大跌導致引伸波幅擴大。他說︰「除了國壽 ELN息率逾 40%,中交建( 1800)、中石油( 857)等 ELN, 9折接貨的普遍都有 30至 40厘。」
金融海嘯過後,不少投資者對 Accumulator、 ELN等衍生工具的興趣大減,投行的目標客戶,由當年的本地大戶轉為內地豪客。業內人士指,「最初係政府加豪宅買賣印花稅嗰陣,投行游說佢哋買 Accumulator,初時注碼唔大,但賺咗錢後就越來越狼,他們認為用人仔買,變相有兩成折扣,以為就算接貨都揸得安心。」
據悉上周有溫州大客炒燶保利協鑫( 3800) Accumulator,由於無力接貨,最終走佬失蹤,相關投行立刻將貨源拋出街外,拖累股價曾瀉 8% 。

2011年8月28日 星期日

實金與金礦股

當金價開始升個時, 金礦股跟住升, 所以買咗可以賺到錢, 但點解依家唔建議人再買金礦股呢 ?
第一就是成本的上升, 掘金人工和工具都貴咗, 而溶金能源都貴咗, 所以公司利潤會減少 !
第二就是當資金抽離股市時, 資金一樣會抽離金礦股 !

所以睇金價升, 想買都係買實金, 而唔好買金礦股 !

倫敦金無王管 工聯助苦主追討

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者謝雅寶)倫敦金騙案屢遏不止,有關經紀通常以金價每升1元,穩賺800元作招徠,令投資者「上釣」。工聯會轄下的「倫敦金苦主大聯盟」於2009年至今已接獲53宗倫敦金騙案,涉及金額達710萬元,最高的被騙金額高達120萬元。工聯會立法會議員王國興批評倫敦金「無王管」,既不受法例監管,也不屬證監會及金管局的管轄範圍,亦無強制性發牌制度,料現時仍有4,000至5,000名無牌經紀在市場活躍。

病婦被兒子女友騙10萬

 患有抑鬱症的長期病患者梁太,須以輪椅代步。她表示,與長子相識8年、任職經紀的女友盧小姐,今年 6月游說她投資,「只要投資10萬元,每日可賺1,000至2,000元,每月則能賺3萬至4萬元」。梁太抱「相識8年,不會騙我」的心態,將10萬元積蓄交予盧投資,並簽下1份授權書,但盧沒有交代有關款項用作投資倫敦金。截至7月長子突然去世,梁太致電盧欲討回本金辦喪事,盧多次以公司電腦被黑客入侵為藉口,至今仍未成功討回本金,也不知投資結餘的情況。

王國興潘佩璆偕苦主報案

 王國興昨聯同工聯會立法會議員潘佩璆及8名苦主代表,到灣仔警察總部報案,要求警方就案件深入調查及跟進。王國興表示,警方從2009年至今僅為10名苦主進行調查,僅對當中一宗個案作出檢控,而且只是起訴騙徒詐騙投資公司;其餘9宗則因證據不足及無法例依據等理由而拒絕再跟進。

5000無牌經紀充斥市場

 王國興表示,經紀通常以金價每升1元,穩賺800元作招徠。騙得投資者開設戶口後,經紀一天內可進行逾100次買賣,從中賺取數千至數萬元的豐厚佣金,並令本金迅速「蒸發」。他批評,政府現時並無立法監管倫敦金買賣,證監會及金管局亦無權規管,雖然金銀業貿易場設有發牌制度,但屬於自願性質,以致全港僅1,500名經紀持牌,料市場上仍有4,000至5,000名無牌經紀,正利用法例漏洞騙取投資者積儲。他續稱,大聯盟已獲得金銀業貿易場支持立法,促請特區政府盡快立法規管倫敦金買賣。

2011年8月27日 星期六

Expect a Spectacular Short Covering Rally in Gold

kingworldnews.com

With gold accelerating today’s gain in access market trading to over $57, King World News interviewed James Turk to get his thoughts on where gold and silver are headed from here. When asked about the action in gold Turk stated, “This was a big day and a great close to the week. The strength that gold displayed suggests that we are going to probe $1,900 very quickly, possibly as soon as next week. What seems apparent is that a lot of people jumped on the short side and are now caught, so the short covering rally could be quite spectacular.”

James Turk continues:

“I read KWN’s interview with Pierre Lassonde and I agree with Pierre that gold should hit $2,000 within 30 days. One of the primary reasons will be the fuel from all of the short covering. The big news today Eric is Bernanke’s speech. He left the market hanging by not giving any firm conclusions today regarding the printing press. The fact that the Federal Reserve has changed their September meeting to two days instead of the normal one day indicates something is afoot.

Given that policymakers have only one remedy for every problem, which is to print money, we can assume QE3 will be announced next month. Even though gold was showing strength all day long, it should be no surprise that gold started moving higher after Bernanke’s speech.”

When asked about silver specifically Turk resonded, “Even though silver hasn’t been getting much attention lately, it is important to note that its low was made back in early July. Since then silver has been in a steady uptrend and it looks like the power of the accumulation that we have seen over the past couple of months is about to be unleashed....

“As gold approaches that $1,910 record high, silver will probably be over $44. It looks to me like the gold/silver ratio is about ready to start falling again. Consequently, I expect silver to hurdle above $50 in September.

金價大反彈


2011年8月26日 星期五

香港國際錢幣展銷會

有朋友通知我有個錢幣展銷會, 所以出去走一轉 !

日期 : 2011年8月26/27/28日
時間: 26日和27日早上十點 - 下午六點
28日早上十點 - 下午五點
地點: 尖沙咀假日酒店地庫麗晶廳

展銷會分兩個廳, 外面的是免入場費, 而內面的要俾 15蚊入場費 !
內面個場(入去右手邊背門口)有中國長城錢幣公司擺檔即場賣熊貓幣, 2011年1盎司銀熊貓賣440蚊, 而金熊貓幣按照中銀牌價賣, 有1盎司、半盎司、 1/4盎司、1/10盎司、1/20盎司 !
對想買細 size 金幣的人是個買貨好機會 !

其他中國金銀幣已炒到天咁高, 而外國金銀幣就分唔出真假 !
東洋和大洋都有參展, 東洋在外廳, 而大洋在內廳 !

金價大波動

由1860急跌去1702後又反彈去1766 !


2011年8月25日 星期四

金銀大回吐

金價一度趺穿 1810 和 1780 兩個支持位 !
睇來期金期銀發生大殺倉 !

黃冠一前晚在NOW財經台說過 1750 可以買黃金, 依家睇下企唔企到, 而下一個支持位是 1720 !

2011年8月24日 星期三

Kitco 有新幣

不過佢地應該一早問我地想要那一種金銀幣, 因為唔係隻隻都抵買 !

隻福字楓葉hologram 和火車銀幣我都買咗俾仔女 !
金幣之中個六千幾的金龍幣最抵買 !

Wish list :
$25 Fine Silver Coin - Toronto City Map (2011)
$20 Fine Silver Coin - Great Canadian Locomotives: D-10 Locomotive (2011)
$20 Fine Silver Coin - Great Canadian Locomotives: Jubilee (2009)
$20 Fine Silver Coin - Great Canadian Locomotives: Selkirk (2010)

Kitco 2011 Silver Round 1 oz
Olympic Silver Maple 1 oz 2009
Perth Mint 2012 silver dragon 5oz, 2oz, 1oz, 1/2oz

謝謝

Gold Declines From Record Above $1,910

finance.yahoo.com

Nicholas Larkin, On Tuesday August 23, 2011, 8:14 am EDT

Gold dropped for the first time in seven sessions in New York as some investors sold the metal after concerns about slowing economic growth pushed prices to a record above $1,910 an ounce.

Bullion is up 16 percent in August, heading for its best monthly performance since September 1999. European services and manufacturing growth held in August at the slowest pace in almost two years and a report today may show falling new-home sales in the U.S. Gold touched an all-time high on speculation Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will signal further measures to stimulate the U.S. economy later this week and as debt crises spurred demand for a protection of wealth.

Gold’s climb in the past several weeks “surprised most in the market, even those in the most bullish camp,” Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS AG in London, wrote in a report today. “Given the speed of the recent rally, the possibility of a correction is rising as investors look to bank profits. Even if a $150 or more pullback were to materialize, we’d strongly view it as a good buying opportunity.”

Gold for December delivery fell $11.20, or 0.6 percent, to $1,880.70 an ounce by 7:57 a.m. on the Comex in New York, erasing a gain of as much as 1.4 percent to $1,917.90. It’s up 32 percent this year. Immediate-delivery gold was 1 percent lower at $1,878.88 in London after reaching a record $1,913.50.

The metal is in the 11th year of a bull market, the longest winning streak since at least 1920 in London, as investors seek to diversify their holdings away from equities and some currencies. Bullion reached all-time highs in euros, British pounds and Swiss francs today.

Elevated RSI

Gold futures’ relative strength index has topped 70 since Aug. 8, a signal to some investors who study technical charts that prices may be set to decline. Exchange-traded-product holdings fell for a second day yesterday, sliding 4.7 metric tons to 2,206.4 tons, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Assets reached a record 2,216.8 tons on Aug. 8.

UBS raised its one-month gold forecast to $1,950 an ounce from $1,725 and increased its three-month outlook to $2,100 from $1,850. The bank’s physical sales yesterday to India, the top global buyer, were the highest since May 10, Tully said.

Treasuries surged in August on concern the world’s biggest economy is faltering. Bernanke is scheduled to speak Aug. 26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at an annual conference sponsored by the Fed Bank of Kansas City. German investor confidence fell more than economists forecast to the lowest level in more than 2 1/2 years in August, data showed today.

Margin Increases

“Things aren’t looking particularly positive,” said Darren Heathcote, Sydney-based head of trading at Investec Bank (Australia) Ltd. “The market is very, very skittish. It wouldn’t surprise me to see gold push higher in the current environment.”

The Shanghai Gold Exchange said it will raise margin requirements for its gold forward contracts to 12 percent from 11 percent from settlement on Aug. 25. CME Group Inc. the largest futures market, hiked margins earlier this month.

Silver for December delivery in New York declined 1 percent to $42.94 an ounce after earlier touching $44.295, the highest price since May 3. It’s up 39 percent this year.

Those who missed out on the last few-hundred-dollar rallies in the gold price perhaps believe it’s near its short-term peak, UBS’s Tully said. “Instead of playing gold from the short side, they prefer buying silver. That trade may well extend this week.”

Platinum for October delivery was down 0.8 percent at $1,890 an ounce after reaching $1,918.50, the highest price since July 2008. Palladium for September delivery fell 0.3 percent to $762.90 an ounce.

To contact the reporter for this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net

神秘組織

23日晴報 !

2011年8月23日 星期二

2011年8月21日 星期日

The New World Order Timeline

The New World Order Timeline

www.threeworldwars.com

World War 3 Timeline -估計會發生的事:

These are, I believe, the stages of the planned Third World War:

  • Prelude - The events leading up to the start of World War Three, including Sept 11, 2001.
  • Act 1 - The Middle East. Widespread conflict to bring the entire region into the flames of war, possibly triggered by Iran or militants in Pakistan using North Korean supplied nuclear arms. The first Scene in this Act is the US Invasion of Iraq on March 20, 2003.
  • Act 2 - Israel at War -- Against her Arab neighbors, possibly Palestine. A Palestinian State will be established, so that all Israelis will be fully separated from Palestinians (listen out for mention of a 7-year treaty to be confirmed by a World Leader - probably Bush), only for Israel to viciously attack Palestine shortly thereafter.
  • Act 3 - Far East -- "Hair-raising nuclear confrontation that threatens mankind's existence" - Peter Lemesurier, author of The Armageddon Script, p. 223, written in 1981. Includes China invading Taiwan (佢地就想啦) and a nuclear eruption on the Korean Peninsula.
  • Act 4 - Erosion of Confidence in 'The System' so severe citizens will be panicked into giving up liberties and Constitutional form of government. The plan calls for the dissolution of the US Constitution, triggered by a significant enough 'terrorist' attack. The ultimate intent is to introduce a global government and one-world religion.
  • Act 5 - The collapse of the US, and other Western economies and morals.

  • Act 6 - Significant population reduction using natural and man-made disasters.
  • Curtain. Who can tell how this war will end?

New World Order Definition

爭取民主的人睇清楚, 將來是無民主的 !
民主只是藉口要你地去反依家的政府, 推全世界成為一班人的專制 !


www.threeworldwars.com

The following article is extracted from an excellent analysis of the New World Order by author Ken Adachi which can be found at educate-yourself.org.

The term New World Order (NWO) has been used by numerous politicians through the ages, and is a generic term used to refer to a worldwide conspiracy being orchestrated by an extremely powerful and influential group of genetically-related individuals (at least at the highest echelons) which include many of the world's wealthiest people, top political leaders, and corporate elite, as well as members of the so-called Black Nobility of Europe (dominated by the British Crown) whose goal is to create a One World (fascist) Government, stripped of nationalistic and regional boundaries, that is obedient to their agenda.

Listen to the Zionist* banker, Paul Warburg:

"We will have a world government whether you like it or not. The only question is whether that government will be achieved by conquest or consent." (February 17, 1950, as he testified before the US Senate).

Their intention is to effect complete and total control over every human being on the planet and to dramatically reduce the world's population by two thirds. While the name New World Order is the term most frequently used today to loosely refer to anyone involved in this conspiracy, the study of exactly who makes up this group is a complex and intricate one. For further research sources, please see the side bar on the left.

In 1992, Dr John Coleman published Conspirators Hierarchy: The Story of the Committee of 300. With laudable scholarship and meticulous research, Dr Coleman identifies the players and carefully details the New World Order agenda of worldwide domination and control. On page 161 of the Conspirators Hierarchy, Dr Coleman accurately summarizes the intent and purpose of the Committee of 300 as follows:

"A One World Government and one-unit monetary system, under permanent non-elected hereditary oligarchists who self-select from among their numbers in the form of a feudal system as it was in the Middle Ages. In this One World entity, population will be limited by restrictions on the number of children per family, diseases, wars, famines, until 1 billion people who are useful to the ruling class, in areas which will be strictly and clearly defined, remain as the total world population.

There will be no middle class, only rulers and the servants. All laws will be uniform under a legal system of world courts practicing the same unified code of laws, backed up by a One World Government police force and a One World unified military to enforce laws in all former countries where no national boundaries shall exist. The system will be on the basis of a welfare state; those who are obedient and subservient to the One World Government will be rewarded with the means to live; those who are rebellious will simply be starved to death or be declared outlaws, thus a target for anyone who wishes to kill them. Privately owned firearms or weapons of any kind will be prohibited."

Why the Conspiracy is Unknown

The sheer magnitude and complex web of deceit surrounding the individuals and organizations involved in this conspiracy is mind boggling, even for the most astute among us. Most people react with disbelief and skepticism towards the topic, unaware that they have been conditioned (brainwashed) to react with skepticism by institutional and media influences. Author and de-programmer Fritz Springmeier (The Top 13 Illuminati Bloodlines) says that most people have built in "slides" that short circuit the mind's critical examination process when it comes to certain sensitive topics. "Slides", Springmeier reports, is a CIA term for a conditioned type of response which dead ends a person's thinking and terminates debate or examination of the topic at hand. For example, the mention of the word "conspiracy" often solicits a slide response with many people.

What most people believe to be "Public Opinion" is in reality carefully crafted and scripted propaganda designed to elicit a desired behavioral response from the public. Public opinion polls are really taken with the intent of gauging the public's acceptance of the New World Order's planned programs. A strong showing in the polls tells them that the programming is "taking", while a poor showing tells the NWO manipulators that they have to recast or "tweak" the programming until the desired response is achieved.

The NWO Modus Operandi

The NWO global conspirators manifest their agenda through the skilful manipulation of human emotions, especially fear. In the past centuries, they have repeatedly utilized a contrivance that NWO researcher and author David Icke has characterized in his latest book, The Biggest Secret, as Problem, Reaction, and Solution.

The technique is as follows: NWO strategists create the Problem - by funding , assembling, and training an "opposition" group to stimulate turmoil in an established political power (sovereign country, region, continent, etc.) that they wish to impinge upon and thus create opposing factions in a conflict that the NWO themselves maneuvered into existence. In recent decades, so called opposition groups are usually identified in the media as 'freedom fighters' or 'liberators'.

At the same time, the leader of the established political power where the conflict is being orchestrated is demonized and, on cue, referred to as 'another Hitler' (take your pick: Saddam Hussein, Milosevic, Kadaffi, etc.). The 'freedom fighters' are not infrequently assembled from a local criminal element (i.e. KLA, drug traffickers). In the spirit of true Machiavellian deceit, the same NWO strategists are equally involved in covertly arming and advising the leader of the established power as well (the NWO always profits from any armed conflict by loaning money, arming, and supplying all parties involved in a war).

The conflict is drawn to the world stage by the controlled media outlets with a barrage of photos and video tape reports of horrific and bloody atrocities suffered by innocent civilians. The cry goes up "Something has to be done!" And that is the desired Reaction.

The NWO puppeteers then provide the Solution by sending in UN 'Peace Keepers' (Bosnia) or a UN 'Coalition Force' (Gulf War) or NATO Bombers and then ground troops (Kosovo), or the military to 'search for Weapons of Mass Destruction', which of course are never found. Once installed, the 'peace keepers' never leave. The idea is to have NWO controlled ground troops in all major countries or strategic areas where significant resistance to the New World Order takeover is likely to be encountered.

Who is the NWO?

The corporate portion of the NWO is dominated by international bankers, oil barons and pharmaceutical cartels, as well as other major multinational corporations. The Royal Family of England, namely Queen Elizabeth II and the House of Windsor, (who are, in fact, descendants of the German arm of European Royalty - the Saxe-Coburg-Gotha family - changed the name to Windsor in 1914), are high level players in the oligarchy which controls the upper strata of the NWO. The decision making nerve centers of this effort are in London (especially the City of London), Basel Switzerland, and Brussels (NATO headquarters).

The United Nations, along with all the agencies working under the UN umbrella, such as the World Health Organization (WHO), are full time players in this scheme. Similarly, NATO is a military tool of the NWO.

The leaders of all major industrial countries like the United States, England, Germany, Italy, Australia, New Zealand, etc. (members of the "G7/G8" ) are active and fully cooperative participants in this conspiracy. In this century, the degree of control exerted by the NWO has advanced to the point that only certain hand-picked individuals, who are groomed and selected are even eligible to become the prime minister or president of countries like England, Germany, or The United States. It didn't matter whether Bill Clinton or Bob Dole won the Presidency in 1996, the results would have been the same. Both men are playing on the same team for the same ball club. Anyone who isn't a team player is taken out: i.e. President Kennedy, Ali Bhutto (Pakistan) and Aldo Moro (Italy). More recently, Admiral Borda and William Colby were also killed because they were either unwilling to go along with the conspiracy to destroy America, weren't cooperating in some capacity, or were attempting to expose/ thwart the takeover agenda.

The NWO's Role in Shaping History

Most of the major wars, political upheavals, and economic depression/recessions of the past 100 years (and earlier) were carefully planned and instigated by the machinations of these elites. They include The Spanish-American War (1898), World War I and World War II; The Great Depression; the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917; the Rise of Nazi Germany; the Korean War; the Vietnam War; the 1989-91 "fall" of Soviet Communism; the 1991 Gulf War; the War in Kosovo; and the two Iraq wars. Even the French Revolution was orchestrated into existence by elements of the NWO.

The instigation of a trumped-up war as a cover for amassing fortunes which can be dated back to at least the 12th Century when only a core group of nine members of the Knights Templar, kicked off the The Crusades that lasted for over a century and a half.

The core group mentioned above have been reported as being the military arm of a secret society known as the Priory of Sion, but this has been proven to be a hoax,

In 1307, the king of France, Philippe the Fair, coveted the wealth and was jealous of the Templars' power. The French king set out to arrest all the Templars in France on October 13. While many Templars were seized and tortured, including their Grand Master, Jacques de Molay, many other Templars (who had been tipped off) escaped. They eventually resurfaced in Portugal, in Malta (as the Knights of Malta) and later in Scotland as The Scottish Rites of Freemasonry, with Albert Pike playing a key role in defining a plan for establishing a world government.

The acquisition and consolidation of ever greater wealth, natural resources, total political power, and control over others are the motivating forces which drive the decisions of the NWO leaders. The toll in human suffering and the loss of innocent lives are non issues for these individuals.




統治世界貨幣


睇來金銀升勢都在計劃之中 !
推出毒債券搞亂世界財政, 推高金銀價格, 推高通脹, 到時用金銀當貨幣來救世界, 但普通民眾的資產就蒸發咗 !

Rothschilds & Rockefellers - Trillionaires Of The World

www.rense.com

"Money is Power", or shall we say, "The Monopoly to Create Credit Money and charge interest is Absolute Power". (Alex James)

Amsel (Amschel) Bauer Mayer Rothschild, 1838:
"Let me issue and control a Nation's money and I care not who makes its laws".

Letter written from London by the Rothschilds to their New York agents introducing their banking method into America: "The few who can understand the system will be either so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favours, that there will be no opposition from that class, while, on the other hand, that great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that Capital derives from the system, will bear its burden without complaint and, perhaps, without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests."

Nathan Rothschild said to the Commons Secret Committee on the question early in 1819: "In what line of business are you? - Mostly in the foreign banking line. "Have the goodness to state to the Committee in detail, what you conceive would be the consequence of an obligation imposed upon the Bank [of England, which he owned] to resume cash payments at the expiration of a year from the present time? - I do not think it can be done without very great distress to this country; it would do a great deal of mischief; we may not actually know ourselves what mischief it might cause. "Have the goodness to explain the nature of the mischief, and in what way it would be produced? - Money will be so very scarce, every article in this country will fall to such an enormous extent, that many persons will be ruined."

The director of the Prussian Treasury wrote on a visit to London that Nathan Rothschild had as early as 1817: ".., incredible influence upon all financial affairs here in London. It is widely stated.., that he entirely regulates the rate of exchange in the City. His power as a banker is enormous".

Austrian Prince Mettemich's secretary wrote of the Rothschilds, as early as 1818, that: "... they are the richest people in Europe."

Referring to James Rothschild, the poet Heinrich Heine said: "Money is the god of our times, and Rothschild is his prophet."

James Rothschild built his fabulous mansion, called Ferrilres, 19 miles north-east of Paris. Wilhelm I, on first seeing it, exclaimed: "Kings couldn't afford this. It could only belong to a Rothschild!"

Author Frederic Morton wrote that the Rothschilds had: "conquered the World more thoroughly, more cunningly, and much more lastingly than all the Caesars before..."

As Napoleon pointed out: "Terrorism, War & Bankruptcy are caused by the privatization of money, issued as a debt and compounded by interest "- he cancelled debt and interest in France - hence the Battle of Waterloo.

Some writers have claimed that Nathan Rothschild "warned that the United States would find itself involved in a most disastrous war if the bank's charter were not renewed." (do you see the similarities here? If you don't play the game an economic disaster will fall on you and you will be destroyed.)

"There is but one power in Europe and that is Rothschild." 19th century French commentator.

Lord Rothschild (Rockefellers and Rothschilds' relatives) in his book The Shadow of a Great Man quotes a letter sent from Davidson on June 24, 1814 to Nathan Rothschild, "As long as a house is like yours, and as long as you work together with your brothers, not a house in the world will be able to compete with you, to cause you harm or to take advantage of you, for together you can undertake and perform more than any house in the world." The closeness of the Rothschild brothers is seen in a letter from Soloman (Salmon) Rothschild to his brother Nathan on Feb. 28, 1815, "We are like the mechanism of a watch: each part is essential." (2) This closeness is further seen in that of the 18 marriages made by Mayer Amschel Rothschild's grandchildren - 16 were contracted between first cousins.

"Centralisation of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly." The Communist Manifesto. In the case of the Bolshevik revolution, Rothschilds/ Rockefellers' Chase Bank owned the state. In the US, the FED owners "own" the state.

Rothschilds' favorite saying who along with the Rockefellers are the major Illuminati Banking Dynasties: "Who controls the issuance of money controls the government!"

Nathan Rothschild said (1777-1836): "I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire. The man who controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire and I control the British money supply."

Rockefeller is reported to have said: "Competition is a sin". "Own nothing. Control everything". Because he wants to centralize control of everything and enslave us all, i.e. the modern Nimrod or Pharaoh.

The Rothschild were behind the colonization and occupations of India and the Rothschild owned British Petroleum was granted unlimited rights to all offshore Indian oil, which is still valid till this day.

"Give me the control of the credit of a nation, and I care not who makes the laws." The famous boastful statement of Nathaniel Meyer Rothschild, speaking to a group of international bankers, 1912: "The few who could understand the system (cheque, money, credits) will either be so interested in its profits, or so dependent on its favours, that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests." The boastful statement by Rothschild Bros. of London.

These people are the top masterminds and conspired for the creation of illegal FEDERAL RESERVE BANK in 1913: Theodore Roosevelt, Paul Warburg - Representative Of Rothschild, Woodrow Wilson - U.S. President Signed FED Into Act, Nelson W. Aldrich - Representative Of Rockefeller, Benjamin Strong - Representative Of Rockefeller, Frank A. Vanderlip - Representative Of Rockefeller, John D. Rockefeller - Rockefeller Himself, Henry Davison - Representative Of J. P. Morgan, Charles Norton - Representative Of J. P. Morgan.

In the last century, members of the British Fabian Society dynastic banking families in the City of London financed the Communist takeover of Russia. Trotsky in his biography refers to some of the loans from these British financiers going back as far as 1907. By 1917 the major subsidies and funding for the Bolshevik Revolution were co-ordinated and arranged by Sir George Buchanan and Lord Alfred Milner. [no doubt using money from Cecil Rhodes' South African gold and diamond legacy - Ed] The Communist system in Russia was a "British experiment" designed ultimately to become the Fabian Socialist model for the British takeover of the World through the UN and EU. The British plan to takeover the World and bring in a "New World Order" began with the teachings of John Ruskin and Cecil Rhodes at Oxford University. Rhodes in one of his wills in 1877 left his vast fortune to Lord Nathan Rothschild as trustee to set up the Rhodes Scholarship Program at Oxford to indoctrinate promising young graduates for the purpose, and also establish a secret society [Royal Institute of International Affairs RIIA, which branched into the Round Table, the Bilderbergers, the CFR, the Trilateral, etc -- Ed] for leading business and banking leaders around the World who would work for the City to bring in their Socialist World government.

Rothschild appointed Lord Alfred Milner to implement the plan.

Benjamin Freedman (Friedman) said this in 1961, Washington (he was a millionaire insider in international Zionist organizations, friend to 4 US presidents, and was also part of the 117-man strong Zionist delegation at the signing of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919 where Germany was forced into bankruptcy to the Zionist BankLords and social chaos): "Two years into WW1, Germany, which was then winning the war, offered Britain and France a negotiated peace deal, but German Zionist groups seeing the opportunity made a deal with Britain to get the United States into the war if Britain promised to give the Zionists Palestine."

In other words, they made this deal: "We will get the United States into this war as your ally. The price you must pay us is Palestine after you have won the war and defeated Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey." They made that promise, in October of 1916. And shortly after that -- I don't know how many here remember it -- the United States, which was almost totally pro-German because the newspapers and mass communications media here were controlled by the Zionist bankers who owned the major commercial banks and the 12 Federal Reserve Banks (the original Stockholders of the Federal Reserve Banks in 1913 were the Rockefeller' s, JP Morgan, Rothschild's, Lazard Freres, Schoellkopf, Kuhn-Loeb, Warburgs, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs, all with roots in Germany's Zionists like the British Royal family, J.P. Morgan, Carnegie, Bush, Rumsfeld, Clintons, the Nazis that were brought into the CIA, etc. http://land.netonecom.net/tlp/ref/federal_reserve.shtml ) and they were pro-German because they wanted to use Germany to destroy the Czar of Russia and let the Communists whom they funded take over. The German Zionist bankers -- Rothschilds, Rockefeller, Kuhn Loeb and the other big banking firms in the United States refused to finance France or England to the extent of one dollar. They stood aside and they said: "As long as France and England are tied up with Russia, not one cent!" They poured money into Germany, fighting with Germany against Russia, to lick the Czarist regime. The newspapers had been all pro-German, where they'd been telling the people of the difficulties that Germany was having fighting Great Britain commercially and in other respects, then after making the deal with the British for Palestine, all of a sudden the Germans were no good. They were villains. They were Huns. They were shooting Red Cross nurses. They were cutting off babies' hands. And they were no good. The Zionists in London sent cables to the US, to Justice Brandeis: "Go to work on President Wilson. We're getting from England what we want. Now you go to work, and you go to work on President Wilson and get the US into the war." And that did happen. Shortly after President Woodrow Wilson declared war on Germany.

The power of the Rothschild family was evidenced on 24 Sept 2002 when a helicopter touched down on the lawn of Waddedson Manor, their ancestral home in Buckinghamshire, England. Out of the helicopter strode Warren Buffet, - touted as the second richest man in the World but really a lower ranking player- and Arnold Schwarzenegger (the gropinator), at that time a candidate for the Governorship of California. Also in attendance at this two day meeting of the World's most powerful businessmen and financiers hosted by Jacob Rothschild were James Wolfensohn, president of the World Bank and Nicky Oppenheimer, chairman of De Beers. Arnold went on to secure the governorship of one of the biggest economies on the planet a year later. That he was initiated into the ruling class in the Rothschilds' English country manor suggests that the centre of gravity of the three hundred trillion dollar cartel is in the U.K. and Europe not the U.S.

A recent article in the London Financial Times indicates why it is impossible to gain an accurate estimate of the wealth of the trillionaire bankers. Discussing the sale of Evelyn Rothschild's stake in Rothschild Continuation Holdings, it states: ...[this] requires agreement on the valuation of privately held assets whose value has never been tested in a public market. Most of these assets are held in a complex network of tax-efficient structures around the World.

Queen Elizabeth II's shareholdings remain hidden behind Bank of England Nominee accounts. The Guardian newspaper reported in May 2002 ... "the reason for the wild variations in valuations of her private wealth can be pinned on the secrecy over her portfolio of share investments. This is because her subjects have no way of knowing through a public register of interests where she, as their head of state, chooses to invest her money. Unlike the members of the Commons and now the Lords, the Queen does not have to annually declare her interests and as a result her subjects cannot question her or know about potential conflicts of interests..." In fact, the Queen even has an extra mechanism to ensure that her investments remain secret - a nominee company called the Bank of England Nominees. It has been available for decades to the entire World's current heads of state to allow them anonymity when buying shares. Therefore, when a company publishes a share register and the Bank of England Nominees is listed, it is not possible to gauge whether the Queen, President Bush or even Saddam Hussein is the true shareholder.

By this method, the trillionaire masters of the universe remain hidden whilst Forbes magazine poses lower ranking billionaires like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett as the richest men in the World. Retired management consultant Gaylon Ross Sr, author of Who's Who of the Global Elite, has been tipped from a private source that the combined wealth of the Rockefeller family in 1998 was approx (US) $11 trillion and the Rothschilds (U.S.) $100 trillion. However something of an insider's knowledge of the hidden wealth of the elite is contained in the article, "Will the Dollar and America Fall Down on August 19?.." on page 1 of the 12th July 2001 issue of Russian newspaper Pravda. The newspaper interviewed Tatyana Koryagina, a senior research fellow in the Institute of Macroeconomic Researches subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development (Minekonom) on the subject of a recent conference concerning the fate of the U.S. economy:

Koryagina: The known history of civilization is merely the visible part of the iceberg. There is a shadow economy, shadow politics and also a shadow history, known to conspirologists. There are [unseen] forces acting in the World, unstoppable for [most powerful] countries and even continents.

Ashley Mote (EU): "Mr President, I wish to draw your attention to the Global Security Fund, set up in the early 1990s under the auspices of Jacob Rothschild. This is a Brussels-based fund and it is no ordinary fund: it does not trade, it is not listed and it has a totally different purpose. It is being used for geopolitical engineering purposes, apparently under the guidance of the intelligence services." "I have previously asked about the alleged involvement of the European Union's own intelligence resources in the management of slush funds in offshore accounts, and I still await a reply. To that question I now add another: what are the European Union's connections to the Global Security Fund and what relationship does it have with European Union institutions? "Recently, Ashley Mote of the European Union (EU) asked this volatile question in a public EU meeting, a question never answered, as Mr. Mote, merely by asking this question, was immediately scratched from the White House Christmas card list and placed on its top ten hit list. The Illuminati's cash cow, grazing freely on the World wide pasture of greenbacks, isn't called "Elsie" but instead is called the Global Security Fund, a name actually meaning in the secret cult's language Global Terrorist Fund. In simple terms, it's a gigantic illegal trust fund, estimated by undercover overseas financial investigators at 65 trillion dollars, set-up for "Illuminati rainy days" and established when it is desperately needed in a pinch for bribery, assassinations and sponsoring World wide terrorist activities to divert attention from their banking mafia. Although the fund is cloaked in secrecy and made possible by the Western civilization' s Federal Reserve banking system, investigators trying to pry into the Illuminati's secret treasure trove have uncovered some interesting facts.

2011年8月20日 星期六

Silver About to Roar Through $50 All-Time High

kingworldnews.com

AUGUST 19, 2011

With gold surging to new all-time highs, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management. When asked where the gold is coming from to satisfy insatiable global demand Embry stated, “Well I expect it’s coming clandestinely from any number of sources. I think maybe the western central banks have a little bit that they could sort of contribute to the cause. I think some of the more obvious ETF’s, if you read the prospectuses they don’t necessarily have to have the gold there that they say they do to back this stuff. So they could be sending it out the back door there to some extent.”

Embry continues:

“You have a number of bullion banks with vaulting facilities now and given their previous activities in this market, I mean I wouldn’t trust my gold in their hands because it could be coming out as well. So there are any number of sources in the short-term. I believe this really aggressive investment demand will continue as more and more people become afraid of the financial system.

There were some brilliant studies that were revealed at the GATA Conference. One study showed that had you just taken the trade during the Comex hours over the past number of years, I forget if the chart was five years or ten years, but gold has been up dramatically, and Comex action alone, by itself would have netted out an actual decline in the gold price of $500 an ounce based on price changes just during the Comex hours.

That’s just statistically aberrant, it couldn’t happen unless there was manipulation. It shows the extent of the manipulation. Eventually the cartel will run out (of gold) and when they do look out because the price is going way, way higher than anybody imagines....

When asked about silver specifically Embry remarked, “Silver is absolutely explosive. The bullion bank with the large short position has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at the thing on the downside. You had those five margin hikes a couple of months ago as an example and that was all an attempt to hold back something that I don’t think can be held back. All it did was sort of buy two or three more months and now silver is building up power to roar through the $50 all-time high.

Once silver does that (breaks $50), who knows where it’s going to go? All I know is that gold is going a lot higher and the gold/silver ratio is going down and that means silver is going a lot further than gold. So I mean pick your prices, they are going to be dramatically higher for both of them.”

叫人愈跌愈買的後果

長揸是王道 ?
買股都要 timing 呀, 朋友 !





Aftershock

w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video

Aftershock 作者 Bob Wiedemer 預告小心美國會出現衰退和惡性通脹 !

建議美國人:
1. 清掉借貸如卡數, 汽車貸款和房貸.
2. 房價還會跌, 如有可能要賣掉房屋.
3. 如有按揭, 最好轉去fixed 還款息率.
4. 資產轉去金銀.
5. 小心股市大跌.
6. 小心美元美債跌.
7. 避免稅收大增, 須把資產轉去給下一代.
8. 買短期債券好過長債.

我們又可以做到乜防範 ?
1. 少借貸.
2. 樓按轉去較安全的fixed 還款息率.
3. 避開炒賣(樓市, 股市, 衍生工具)
4. 買實金實銀, 人民幣.

其實香港人最幸福, 因為在歐美買實金實銀或外幣存款都無咁方便和便宜 ! 所以資金才會流去美債, 是平民百姓雖一出路 !



Hugo Chavez Demands 99 Tons of Venezuelan Gold Returned From the Bank of England/ JP Morgue

silverdoctors.blogspot.com

We just reported that Hugo Chavez has nationalized the entire Venezuelan gold industry this afternoon.
Well, Hugo didn't stop there, as latest headlines flashing indicate that Chavez has requested that the Bank of England return 99 Tons of Venezuelan gold held on deposit, and a total of 211 Tons of gold held abroad (WSJ).

For those with any knowledge of the cartel, you know where this is heading.

For those who don't....the Bank of England currently stores 211 tons of Venezuela's gold in the vaults of (per Bloomberg) JP Morgan, Barclays, and the Bank of Nova Scotia.

A last check of physical gold inventory in The Morgue's vault showed a whopping 338,303 total ounces of gold...roughly 10.6 tons.

In an absolute shocker to all who follow gold and silver here, are we about to see the COMEX GOLD market busted/default before COMEX SILVER?????

Look for gold to VAULT past $1800 in the access/ Asian markets tonight when this news spreads.

If Chavez carries through with this ultimatum, look for Venezuela to receive the Gaddafi/ Libyan treatment within the week.

Got Phyzz?

金價今日好大波動


金價見新高1877後, 波幅擴大咗 !

2011年8月19日 星期五

憂國外不穩 委國黃金調返央行

唔怪得金價要大升啦, 剛才最高1844 !

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】繼周三宣佈把金礦收歸國有後,消息有傳委內瑞拉總統查韋斯( Hugo Chavez)擔心實金數量不夠,打算把所持的黃金調回央行,並會將存於境外的外滙,轉移到多個新興國家的銀行。另外,世界黃金協會( World Gold Council, WGC)昨日指,由於 ETF買入黃金的數量大減,黃金整體需求於次季下跌接近兩成。但協會表示由於歐美市場仍然不穩,黃金全年需求將繼續向升。在資金避險下,現貨金價昨再衝破 1800美元大關,最高見 1821美元。
據《華爾街日報》,查韋斯將會把政府所持,分別存放國外多間銀行的 211噸黃金,調回委內瑞拉的中央銀行。除此之外,查韋斯或會把儲於國外的外滙,轉移到位於中國、俄羅斯及巴西的銀行。市場估計背後的主要原因,是由於查韋斯擔心國外經濟不穩,會令所存的資金化為烏有。
10噸金存放在摩通

查韋斯透過電話在國營電視台中表示:「我們要將所有黃金收歸國有,並將這些金轉化為儲備,因為金價的價值將會繼續上升。」
現時委內瑞拉把其中的 10.6噸黃金存放在摩根大通內。但根據芝加哥商品交易所( CME)日前的報告表示,摩通的實金存貨正正只有 10.6噸。
金價昨日最多曾升 34.85美元,至每盎斯 1826.1美元。由於早前股市極為波動,令不少人轉而投資黃金。
世界黃金協會昨日發表的季度黃金需求報告指出,第二季黃金需求為 919.8噸,比去年同期少 17%,亦比本年首季跌 5%。 ETF黃金需求比去年同期下跌 82%。即使全球黃金需求下跌,協會投資常務董事 Marcus Grubb表示情況已經出現逆轉,但由於受歐洲及美國不明朗的經濟影響下,「要第三季的需求量反彈並非難事。」

2011年8月18日 星期四

金價沒法擋

美股就慘啦 !

Germany’s Gold Hoard

www.thetrumpet.com

August 17, 2011 | From theTrumpet.com
Euro or no euro, Germany is the sole nation with sufficient bullion to back a federal currency. By Ron Fraser and Andrew Miiller

Gold skyrocketed to over us$1,800 an ounce on Tuesday. One nation gained powerfully as a result: Germany.

As the markets fixate on Europe, seeking to understand the complexities involved in Franco-German moves to stabilize the eurozone and hence the global economy, little attention has been paid to a crucial component of German power in this whole equation—Germany’s gold hoard.

It is intriguing to note the historical timing of Germany’s sudden acquisition of its post-unification gold hoard.

The forerunner of today’s European Central Bank, the European Monetary Institute (emi), once carried almost $27 billion in gold reserves. In 1998, the emi was replaced by the European Central Bank (ecb). No European Monetary Union financial data was published that year, while Europe’s elites “rebalanced” the financial system. When financial records resumed publication in 1999, $20 billion in gold had “gone missing” from EU coffers.

One would have assumed that these EU reserves should have been automatically transferred to the emi’s replacement, the ecb. No official explanation was ever given as to why it was not. It is interesting to note, however, that in that same year, the German central bank reported a $20 billion increase in its national gold reserves.

The result? Germany now owned 3,400 tons of gold—enough to back an entire currency if it wanted to!

As the late Christopher Story, a former adviser to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, observed: “The Bundesbank suddenly acquired massive gold reserves, just as the euro was launched in the first quarter of 1999. The gold amassed, both in terms of its physical size and of its value (national valuation basis) is more than enough with which unilaterally to introduce a gold-backed ‘new Deutsche mark’—in contrast to the U.S. dollar, which is not backed by gold” (Economic Intelligence Review, March 2000).

Coincident with this, commentators were intrigued by the continuous slump in the value of the European Union’s collective currency, the euro, immediately after its launch in January 1999. This was engineered to favor the German economy: “The euro has given German manufacturing the weak currency it needs to counter high labor costs, and has created a single capital market across 11 countries, in which the German banks are ideally placed to thrive” (Spectator, June 17, 2000). German banks were very clever at obtaining share cross-holdings in the firms to which they lent.

Put these two facts together—the sudden acquisition of bullion and the coincident launching of a currency at a rate favorable to the EU’s most powerful national economy—and an extremely interesting picture emerges. “The Germans may have been preparing their greatest coup in history: the sudden, overnight substitution of a ‘new deutsche mark’ backed by gold, for the regrettably ‘failed’ EU collective currency,” the Economic Intelligence Review continued. “[I]n reality, the Bundesbank’s acquisition of colossal gold reserves coincident with the launch of the euro (which policymakers were never supposed to notice), and the convenience of the biggest competitive devaluation in history, betray the probable truth—that this represents the realization of the pan-German plan for a European collective currency elaborated by the Nazis, and was cunningly postulated from the outset. In other words, the euro’s steep depreciation is ‘not coincidental’” (op.cit.; emphasis added).

These facts are made all the more interesting by statements recently made by a senior Bundesbank official. When asked what Germany would do if a Greek default forced the ecb into insolvency, he responded that Bundesbank officials had already discussed how to deal with such a situation. “We have 3,400 tons of gold,” he said. “We are the only country that has not sold its original allotment from the [late 1940s]. So we are covered to some extent” (Vanity Fair, September 2011).

Is it possible that German elites could use their massive gold reserves to establish a gold-backed Deutsche mark in the event that the euro fails? Here is what the late Christopher Story wrote in that March 2000 edition of the Economic Intelligence Review: “If Berlin were to decide that the progressive collapse of the euro, which is already well advanced, had ceased to be tolerable, it has already amassed the necessary reserves of gold to be able to float a ‘new Deutsche mark’ unilaterally—leaving the rest of Europe at Germany’s mercy and prospectively left with no practical choice, under the circumstances, but to accept the new Deutsche mark in lieu of the degraded euro ….”

The implications of all this for the United States, the dollar and the world, are huge. Whereas the U.S. dollar ceased to be backed by gold in 1971, the new Deutsche mark would be backed by gold. The dollar could be “dislodged” from its global primacy not by the euro, which will continue to be degraded either immediately or over time, but by the new Deutsche mark.

Only time will tell how this situation will play out. However, if the Bundesbank does plan to introduce a gold-backed Deutsche mark, it could well be that the day Greece defaults—which appears only a matter of time—is the day that Germany replaces America as the world’s most powerful nation, overnight!

Back in the heady European summer of 1990, when Germanic euphoria was high over the unification of East and West Germany, British politician Nicholas Ridley told the Spectator that “European Monetary Union, then being discussed seriously for the first time, was ‘a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe. … You might just as well give it to Adolf Hitler, frankly …. I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather have the [bomb] shelters and the chance to fight back, than simply being taken over by … economics’” (June 17, 2000).

Well, Mr. Ridley, it took a decade, but the reality is that this time Germany has done it, not by bombs, but by sheer economic panache—and has fooled the whole world!

All that remains now is for German elites to carry out their solution to their deliberately created crisis—their real “final solution”! •

2011年8月17日 星期三

工商深鐵銀聯卡

本來兩年前想在深圳申請工商深鐵銀聯信用卡, 但因為無帶住址証明, 所以無咗件事 !

剛好工商在上水開咗分行, 所以走去睇下有乜卡可以申請而見到呢張想要好耐的信用卡 !
呢張卡有乜特別 ?
第一你可以用來刷卡搭快速火車去廣洲, 唔須排隊買票 !
第二呢張卡可以港幣/人民幣兩用, 就係可以在香港簽而還港幣, 在大陸簽而還人民幣 !
第三是還款時好方便, 還港幣可以用徵費靈, 而人民幣可以去銀行還 ! 唔同其他銀行的銀聯卡, 還款須要用港幣, 變相叫你同銀行買人民幣 ! 而如果你手上已有人民幣, 你跟本不須再用高價去買 !
第四有一年的內地意外急救醫療保(只限於主卡) 送!
第五迎新(主卡)簽三千港幣/人民幣有三百港幣/人民幣簽賬額送, 唔曬選垃圾禮品 !
第六免三年年費 !

保護財產 防洩個人資料

本人都成日收到電話說可以升級信用卡, 不知是真是假 ? 如果銀行有心的, 會寄信過來, 唔係就自己去銀行辦理, 但千萬唔好經電話辦理財務 !

文匯報

Citibank環球個人銀行服務信貸管理總監廖平邦

 相信不少人都聽過「猜猜我是誰」的電話騙案,對這種詐騙手法已經有所防範。不過,勿以為你對騙徒的 伎倆瞭如指掌,最近就有不法之徒藉著政府向市民派發6,000元的計劃,假扮銀行職員向長者訛稱可幫他們預先登記,免受排隊之苦,以套取他們的姓名、身份 證號碼及銀行戶口資料。

 切勿輕視保護個人資料的重要性,因為這些資料一旦落入不法分子手中,他們就可以操控你的銀行戶口,令你蒙受金錢上的損失,所以大家對自己的個人資料絕對不能掉以輕心。

提防騙徒冒充銀行職員

 另一個近年常見的行騙手法就是透過電話推銷套取資料。不法分子會隨機抽出電話號碼,冒充是某銀行職 員,甚至指明是由某分行致電以增加可信性,然後以低息作招徠推銷貸款,要求有意借貸的市民提供姓名、身份證號碼、地址、工作及收入等個人資料登記。騙徒又 會留下假的聯絡電話,當市民回電時就會發現已經「上當」。

 大家必須留意,本港銀行只會向現有客戶進行電話推銷,職員會以客戶名字作稱呼,並能指出客戶正使 用的服務及產品種類,又會留下有效電話以供客戶回電。最重要的是,銀行不會向現有客戶索取個人資料。假若聲稱是銀行職員的人並不知道你的名字和身份,又要 求你在電話中提供個人資料,他就是冒充的。目的是取得你的個人資料及身份,以操控你的銀行戶口或冒名申請信用卡及貸款,甚至開立銀行戶口進行洗黑錢等不法 活動。如果你對來電者的身份有懷疑,千萬不要透露任何個人資料,並應該致電銀行的24小時熱線查證對方身份真偽。

 正如前文所講,騙徒的手法層出不窮,最重要是時刻保持警覺,小心保護自己的個人資料,就等於保護自己的財產。


還是金銀最強

五年前開始儲實金, 今年已有一倍賺, 而今日買的實銀, 是否五年後如今日的金 ?

2011年8月16日 星期二

A Gold Breakout Above $1,810 Could Come at Any Time

goldsilver.com

With gold closing above $1,750 on the 40th anniversary of Nixon taking the US off of the gold standard, today King World News interviewed James Turk. Turk had this to say, “Let’s talk about the 40th anniversary, you know normally anniversaries are happy times but I would say this is not a particularly happy anniversary given how badly everything has gone over the past 40 years. All of the problems that we see today are a direct result of the US abandoning gold.”

When asked about the action in the metals Turk responded, “I think this is going to be a good week for silver. There were a lot of hedge funds buying gold and selling silver when gold had its big move last week and I think some of those spreads are going to be unwound. Silver has been holding support here, it’s getting ready to follow gold on the way up. My expectation is that silver is going to outperform gold this week, which would be the first time that has happened in a few weeks.
Read the Rest @ the ORIGINAL SOURCE

Original source


剛果(金)欠債案 人大下周釋法

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 劉凝哲北京報道)十一屆全國人大常委會第67次委員長會議決定,在8月24日(下周三)至26日舉行的十一屆全國人大第22次會議上,審議香港特別行政區基本法第十三條第一款和第十九條的解釋草案的議案。這是香港特區終審法院6月上旬針對美國FG公司訴剛果(金)案提請全國人大常委會進行釋法,也是終審法院第一次提請釋法,備受各界關注。

欠債8億在港訴訟

 剛果(金)案緣起於上世紀80年代,一間前南斯拉夫的公司為剛果興建水力發電及高壓電纜,雙方其後有糾紛。經仲裁後,剛果(金)欠下該公司8億元款項。2004年,美國基金公司FG取代原債主成為新債主,在全球興訴追債。2008年,FG發現中國中鐵透過旗下三附屬公司(中國中鐵)在剛果(金)進行逾17億元的基建投資後,遂在香港向剛果(金)及中國中鐵發起訴訟,要求中鐵將其中8億元投資款項用作抵債。

 當時,香港特區高院原訟庭採納主權國享有「絕對豁免權」原則,裁定香港法院無權審理有關糾紛。後來,上訴庭3名法官以2比1多數採納主權國享有「有限制豁免權」原則,即主權國純商業行為受香港法院管轄,並把案件發還給原訟庭審理,以決定中國中鐵的投資是否可用作抵債。剛果(金)和中國中鐵不服,向特區終審法院上訴。特區終院於6月上旬就此案提請全國人大常委會釋法。

 在昨日召開的全國人大常委會委員長會議上,全國人大法律委員會副主任委員喬曉陽作關於提請審議香港基本法第十三條第一款和第十九條的解釋草案有關情況的匯報。委員長會議建議,十一屆全國人大常委會第二十二次會議審議刑事訴訟法修正案草案、審議香港特別行政區基本法第十三條第一款和第十九條的解釋草案等議案。

2011年8月15日 星期一

黃金越貴越買 京港湧搶金潮

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 王曉雪、江鑫嫻、邱婷)近期環球股市狂瀉,避險情緒高漲,加上通脹升溫,香港及北京市民都湧去買黃金保值,刺激黃金銷售節節上升。而追隨國際金價不斷飆高 的步伐,京城金價亦以一路攀升的漲勢在短短幾天內創下歷史新高。許多人抱有買漲不買跌的心態,金價暴漲後,兩地金舖的銷售額不降反升,甚至出現「搶購熱 潮」。

僅一個半月的時間,黃金價格就大漲近20%,可謂「瘋狂至極」。據新華社報道,受美國評級下調、兩 房評級下調和法國評級下調傳聞等事件的影響,市場避險情緒持續高漲,致使國際金價大幅上揚,一舉突破每盎司1,800美元的大關,創每盎司1,814美元 歷史新高。雖然此後略有下降,截至發稿時,8月14日的金價亦保持在每盎司約1,746美元的高位。

京城金價每克破400元大關

 本報記者就此走訪京城各大黃金交易賣場,14日下午5時左右,儘管北京暴雨如注,但在菜百首飾東安 店、工美黃金、周大福、六福珠寶等黃金櫃台前,前來諮詢、選購的顧客依然絡繹不絕,菜百首飾櫃台前懸掛的價格指示牌顯示,菜百黃金千足金價格升至每克 415元,足金價格已升至每克410元。此外,在周大福東安店的金價指示牌則顯示,當日足金價格每克451元。

 消息稱,今年以來,京城金飾品價格已連續六次上調,每克千足金、足金價格分別累計上漲77元和80元。國家統計局9日發布的數據則顯示,7月份,內地金銀珠寶類商品銷售總額同比增長45%,領漲全國社會消費品零售總額同比增長17.2%。

 儘管金價持續高漲並高位運行,但內地消費者的購買熱情依然高漲,京城最大的菜百首飾、周大福等黃金 商家金價均升至每克410元以上,全面突破400大關。北京菜市口百貨股份有限公司、國華商場等北京各大黃金賣場短短五天之內兩次調價,漲幅達7%。菜百 商場的黃金櫃台隨時隨地擠滿了顧客,中國黃金部分店面甚至出現了空櫃的罕見場景。

香港金舖金粒賣斷貨

 據本港金舖反映,今年首7個月金飾生意較去年同期增長1倍,周大福九龍中區區域經理雷亦強接受本報 記者訪問時表示,雖然近期金價大升,但對金飾銷售影響不大,特別是有婚嫁需要的內地遊客並未因金價上升而卻步。他又認為,黃金始終有很大的避險作用,在現 時環球經濟不明朗的情況下,相信未來金價易起難跌,惟料當飾金價升至每⒂2萬元時,才需擔心出現泡沫。上周飾金價曾升至每⒂逾18,300港元。

 有售金粒及金條的香港金舖表示,實金日前一度缺貨,不少客人想買都買不到,雖然可接受預訂,但限定要即日取貨,不設購買上限。由於實金不含手工費用,投資保值能力較飾金為高,目前公斤條價值高達44萬元,但亦有人大手掃入金條。

 六福珠寶(0590)董事兼業務副經理黃蘭詩表示,現時購買金飾仍以內地遊客為主,撇除金價升幅的影響,在前個周五至周日(5日至7日)較對上一個周五至周日的金飾銷售量增加約15%,近期有內地熟客一次購入價值120多萬的有雕花金條,相信是作收藏保值或送禮之用。


2011年8月14日 星期日

Don’t let anyone tell you gold isn’t golden

哈哈哈, 有趣 !

www.marketwatch.com

By Al Lewis

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — OK, so I was wrong about gold.

In my first column of the year, I boldly predicted gold would top $1,700 an ounce in 2011. Now it’s passed $1,800.

“A rising gold price is God’s little messenger, reminding us the money we save for the future is just paper,” I wrote.

Geez, I sounded like one of those crackpot spokesmen from the AM radio commercials: “Gold has never been worth zero!” And nobody seemed to take me seriously since I admitted that my forecast was based on questions posed to my Magic 8-Ball, rather than insights from a real market analyst or economist.

I’ve written columns bullish on gold since 2003, after gold hit an astonishing, nose-bleeding, long-time high of $385 an ounce.

Those were the good ol’ days when, if you said something nice about gold, readers would email to call you a “gold bug” or some kind of conspiracy theorist planning for the end of the United States of America, or something.

When gold rallied well over $500 an ounce in 2005, I interviewed some very smart people who were pretty sure gold was just another bubble.

“It’s had a nice run over the last 24 months,” Jeff Thredgold, an economist with Vectra Bank Colorado, told me in 2005. “But gold is easily the single-worst investment of the last 25 years.”

Economic outlooks were markedly different in 2005. Back then, we were looking for another record quarter for stocks and more sizzling new highs for home sales. Today, we’re happy to hear our government isn’t going to default on its trillions of dollars in debts.

Since the 2008 crash, and our ongoing failure to pull out of it, most people should have a pretty clear idea about where gold is headed and why. I don’t have to tell you it’s going to be worth $2,000, $3,000, $5,000 or ultimately, two giant truckloads of canned food and ammunition, at the rate we’re going. But perhaps you’ve been distracted by naysayers along the way.

In a week heralding new records for gold, and a frightening dive for stocks, I thought it would be fun to look at some old news stories and examine examples of the gold bashing we’ve done over the past couple of years, much of it stemming from those moments when gold takes its inevitable, but temporary, pullbacks:

• “We had a bubble in gold fueled by exasperation and the inability to make money in stocks. Investors were hit by all the bubble sales pitches that suggested gold was a ‘can’t-lose proposition.’” — Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist for Gain Capital, in a March 1, 2009, Chicago Tribune article that was unfortunately headlined, “Gold gains unlikely to pan out for long.”

Don’t you just hate it when gold goes over $1,000, falls to nearly $700, and then soars past $1,800? Clearly, this gold bubble will pop once the Federal Reserve announces that the economic recovery has been a grand success and it can now raise interest rates. But when’s that going to happen?

• “Gold is worth what you think it’s worth. It’s very difficult to value. There are no cash flows, so it has no intrinsic value. There is very little commercial use for it. It’s more of a trading vehicle.” — Bill Stone, chief investment strategist, PNC Wealth Management, in an Oct.9, 2010, New York Times article.

Yes, that’s why they say gold is morphing into a currency while other currencies are morphing into stuff you haul around in wheelbarrows.

• “Attempting to project or capitalize on price movements in gold is speculation, not investing.” — Steve Condon, director of investor advisory services for Truepoint Capital, in Cincinnati, in an Oct. 12, 2009, Associated Press article.

Got that? Buying gold is speculation. Buying paper, now that’s investing.

• “Too many naive investors got involved in gold. They must be taken out and given a right good caning.” — Dennis Gartman, a trader and publisher of the Gartman Letter investment newsletter, in a Dec. 8, 2009, Chicago Tribune article about “Newbie gold investors.”

I would like to see them canned as well .. for making way too much money from the folly of the Fed.

• “It will move up, but the music always stops,” — Quincy Krosby, market strategist for Prudential Financial, in a Dec. 29, 2009, article by the Associated Press.

As we learned this week, the music stops for a lot of investments. And when it does, it’s nice to own gold.

• “Our bottom line is this: Gold is a bubble now, and it is too late to get in. It is like someone who bought real estate in 2006, at the height of that bubble. You could get hurt really badly.” — Kimberly Sterling, Orlando, Fla. financial planner, in an April 2010 story by the Orlando Sentinel.

You know what else hurts? Not owning gold when it hits yet another new high.

• “Don’t put your money on a simple rock. … It is ‘fear metal’ — you buy it when you are afraid of every other investment.” — James Altucher, managing director of Formula Capital, in a July 12, 2010, blog post on The Wall Street Journal’s website, wsj.com.

Hey, at least it’s a pretty rock. And the people are fearful. Very, very fearful.

2011年8月13日 星期六

不賭還是賭

見到有人說, 買股票長揸是王道, 而炒出炒入是賭錢, 賭者輸清輸光 !

人生本來是一個賭場, 你唔想參於都唔得, 而今日的決定是明日的成敗 ! 賭乜野 ? 你的養老資金囉 !

見到股票愈跌, 人人就愈接貨, 看到我心寒, 所以認為買實金實銀是行岩咗路 !

朋友, 就算你唔信金銀, 都唔好賭一邊啦, 輸起上來乜都無啦, 分散投資啦 !

成日要問自已: What if I am wrong ?

人幣冲天高盛籲沽套利

果然下一個攻摯目標是人民幣, 但無打算沽出手上人民幣, 因為遲下收返層樓裝修俾仔女度假用 !

蘋果日報

【本報訊】評級機構標普早前下調美國主權評級引起全球金融市場「大地震」,中國外滙管理局官員昨直言,從中國外滙儲備規模增長可以看出,目前資金流入壓力很大,因此,打擊違規資金和跨境套利資金的流入仍是外管局重點工作。正當人民幣滙價行情被看漲,高盛發表報告,建議沽空人民幣套利。
記者:周燕芬

高盛向其客戶建議沽空人民幣原因很簡單,報告指,在近日的環球金融風暴中,人民幣升值幅度加速,全年料升值 6%。不過,人民幣升值背後亦存隱憂,就是若外圍環境惡化,中央不會再想打擊出口商,人民幣升值將受抑制;人民幣再大幅升值的可能性不大,因此高盛建議沽人民幣以套利。

中國重組外儲惹關注

人民幣滙價升降條件果然成也全球經濟增長,敗也繫於全球經濟難擺脫疲弱之局。美國更是影響中國最大,美國被降級,令市場關注中國要逐步重組其外滙儲備,以免美元滙價轉弱令其外儲資產「縮水」。
人民銀行昨就市場人士對中國持有大量美元資產安全性的疑慮逐漸升溫作出回應,指美國債務上限提高後,美國違約風險在短期內基本消除。不過,美國仍面臨中長期債務可持續性風險。
長遠來看,中國要解決美元資產的問題,短期則要對抗熱錢湧入。外管局國際收支司副司長王春英昨指出,從中國外滙儲備規模增長可以看出,目前資金流入的壓力很大,下半年重點工作之一仍是打擊違規資金和跨境套利資金的流入。她希望進出口交易較多的企業要充份利用國內外滙市場鎖定外滙風險。

企業應緩接單抗成本漲

王春英表示,根據外管局前兩個季度的企業調研顯示,當前出口難是原材料、勞動力等成本上升等原因造成,出口企業並不愁定單,愁的是利潤,應對的方法是慎接單、緩接單、接短單。
同時,企業應對滙率波動的方法,第一是提高效率,然後是降低成本,提高附加值,打造品牌以及出口國別多樣化等。她並表示,期權交易今年 4月推出後,還將不斷推出新產品,以降低風險。
至於打擊通脹,人行昨重申,未來將合理運用利率、滙率、公開市場操作、存款準備金率和宏觀審慎管理等多種政策工具組合,保持合理的社會融資規模。
人行指出,按照主動性、可控性和漸進性原則,進一步完善人民幣滙率形成機制,參考一籃子貨幣進行調節,增強滙率彈性,保持人民幣滙率在合理均衡水準上的基本穩定,促進國際收支基本平衡。

爆完股災爆輪災 玩殘輪民

遠離炒賣 !

文匯報

香港文匯報訊 (記者 周紹基) 港股繼日前股災後,昨日亦爆輪災,受引伸波幅急跌拖累,即使大市與正股上升,有關輪價反而下跌,令買輪的股民昨天勁蝕1.2億元。市況方面,港股隨美股反彈,高開361點後,下午升幅卻收窄,一度倒跌下,收市只能升24.8點,收報19620點,成交額756億元。市場人士指,恒指一周累跌6.3%或 1326點,且大市在兩萬點前阻力驚人。

 窩輪全日成交額增至114.75億元,佔主板總成交約15.21%,其中恒指輪約佔44.5%,和黃(013)、礇豐(005)輪各佔一成。昨早大市在上升時,恒指及股份都錄得升幅,散戶原以為昨日可借炒call輪翻身,誰知卻死傷無數,皆因波動市令本周港股波動指數(VHSI)大幅抽升,令窩輪的引伸波幅擴傦,隨著昨日市況回穩,波動指數急回,令引伸波幅同時急縮,多隻窩輪價格因而暴瀉。

恒指礇控和黃購輪重災

 例如恒指瑞銀(認購輪)(11825)及恒指美林(認購輪)(12336),早段分別大瀉54%及 48.7%。另外,股份輪如保協野村(認購輪)(29792)、建行比聯(認購輪)(12421)亦分別暴挫75%及66.7%。散戶若以為升市買 call輪必賺,隨時蝕入肉。

 渣打股票衍生及中介銷售部認股證銷售董事翁世權表示,昨日恒指波幅指數由36,顯著下跌15%,低見34,就算升市,大量恒指認購證也「唔識升」,股份窩輪會因引伸波幅急瀉而跌更多,他建議窩輪投資者暫時忍手,待引伸波幅穩定下來才入市,又或者選擇減持。恒指波幅指數在周一、周二時,曾一度突破50,過往VHSI指數多在20水平上落。

 翁世權表示,投資者要注意引伸波幅一旦受壓,窩輪價格的表現有機會偏離以實際槓桿計算之理論價值。若港股波幅繼續收窄,港股的場外期權引伸波幅亦有可能繼續下跌,有機會反映於窩輪市場上,並令窩輪價格持續受壓,無論發行商及投資者都會損手。

場外期權對沖成本急增

 有證券經紀指出,不少投資者昨日在輪場損手,相信引伸波收窄後,輪價會漸回復正常水平,昨日只是市場大升大落的滯後反應。有投資策略師指出,港股隨外圍大幅波動,恒指動輒上落數百至千點,場外期權的對沖成本也會因此增加,令窩輪偏離大市及正股走勢。以恒指貼價輪為例,上周五平均引伸波幅為為26%,到周二急速擴闊至35.2%,隨著市場恐慌情緒緩和,昨日的引伸波幅已跌至29.5%水平,故建議入市炒輪的投資者選擇中年期,5%以內的價內輪。

 港股經歷了大起大落的一周,在標普將美國的主權信貸評級從「AAA」下調至「AA+」後,恒指迅即失守19000,最低曾見18868點。即使美國維持低息至2013年,刺激港股向上,亦未能讓恒指重上兩萬點,全周恒指瀉6.33%;國指挫982 點,跌幅更達8.59%,至10452點。

恒指季檢藍籌股無變動

 申銀萬國證券分析員陳鳳珠表示,歐債危機和美國經濟的憂慮,會持續困擾大市,在外圍尚不明朗下,恒指短期難有上升動力,並只會在19000至20000點上落。

 恒指收市後季度檢討,宣布藍籌股無變動,成份股數目維持46隻。

金銀初步支持


2011年8月11日 星期四

中債危機倒數計時

news.cnyes.com

7/23日中國溫州火車追撞事故,理論上是個單純的意外。不過這件事在金融市場,似乎產生了蝴蝶效應,加速了中國各類債務引爆危機的時程。中國的通膨困境,房地產泡沫,地方政府債務問題,目前都已廣為人知,中國高層也全力阻擋危機引爆。不過這起火車事故,卻掀起了市場對中國鐵道部財務黑洞的質疑。中國資金鏈有危機的領域,非常廣泛!

1. 電力行業:為了防止通膨飆升,中國難以調升電價。造成火力發電廠,發電越多,虧損越大。目前五大發電集團平均負債已超過80%。平均每千瓦的電力要虧0.1元人民幣,從6月全國總發電量3968億千瓦估算,每個月新增虧損高達300億人民幣。過去各地電廠都靠母公司擔保借款度日。不過今年部份電廠負債率已超過100%,雖然是國有企業,銀行也開始拒絕貸放。

2. 鋼鐵業:自 2009年之後,中國為了對抗國際鐵礦石價格壟斷,開始整併鋼鐵企業,由大型國有企業收購小鋼企。但是煤鐵原料進口價格居高不下,併購不但沒有產生利潤,反而累積鉅額虧損。目前已爆出中國中鋼集團因投資山西中宇暴虧40億,中冶集團也因為投資唐山恆通公司產生巨虧。目前中國整體鋼鐵業負債比率已經超過 60%,負擔極重。

3. 房地產企業:目前平均負債超過70%,行業現金流量轉負,各大城市房屋交易量驟降 60%。大型房企多早有準備,先前趁房地產大好時發債儲備現金。目前資金緊張的大多是中小型房企。不過最令人擔心的是:2009年下半年後。天價圈地的國企都不是以房地產為本業,如2010年初北京地王,就是被中國鐵建標走。因此房市冷卻,也造成非地產企業資金緊張,股價連續破底。

4.沿海加工區中小企業困境:出口企業受匯率,通膨,與勞工薪資三方夾擊,加上借貸困難,處境堪憂。看最大雇工 /出口企業(x海,富x康)股價表現,就知道問題很大。不過這些企業既不佔中國股市權值,也不易產生集體鉅額違約。因此不會是引爆危機的導火線,在判定中債危機何時爆發的問題上,不該當作決策主軸。

當企業缺錢時,籌資管道有三:
1. 銀行業貸款:國有銀行過去大量給地方政府擔保的城市投資公司與國有企業。自從中國嚴厲緊縮放貸後,連國企都不易取得足額貸款。
2. 直接發行短期債券與商業本票籌資:銀行將這些高利率的產品包裝成理財商品(就是台灣稱的連動債),或是高息債券基金,對外銷售。過去兩個月上海與雲南城投公司傳出可能違約消息後,目前次級市場接近凍結。民眾與其他企業資金對這類商品產生疑慮,資金鏈必將中斷。
3. 股票市場增發新股籌資:2010年中國股市增資金額世界第一,股市表現全球倒數第二,已經引發投資人廣大厭惡。國有企業持續圈錢難度高。

在這些背景因素下,小小的火車意外,就像是火藥庫裡的煙蒂一樣非常危險。2008年後風起雲湧的鐵公機建設(鐵路,公路,機場),最高潮就是神速的高鐵興建熱潮。這次意外,不但讓中國高鐵外銷受阻,也會讓國內營運受損,大幅降低資金回收速度。相關企業缺乏資金,將大幅減少投資興建規模。其他原物料產業收入將下降,擴大虧損。只要有任何一家國有企業還款出現不正常,國企與國有銀行之間互不信任就會擴大,全面性債務危機將會爆發。過去以為房企與地方政府隱藏的債務是最大地雷,現在又多了國有企業資金狀況必需密切觀察,
如果中國各類債務問題從內部引爆,最關鍵的判斷指標應該是上海拆款利率Shibor:

www.shibor.org

2011年中國升息3次,分別是2/9日,4/5日與7/7。同時也6次調升存款準備率。但是拆款利率卻是在7月飆升!這顯示資金緊張的狀況並非完全是升息造成,而是大企業出現異常籌資需求。未來可以將3個月Shibor當作是判斷中國債務危機引爆的關鍵(與目前看希臘,歐洲PIGS各國利率來猜歐債危機雷同)。過去30年來,只要是債務危機,引爆的時間點都十分固定。大多借貸到期時間不是12月底,就是6月底。若還款有問題,市場將提前2~3個月開始反應。2009年中國9.6兆新增貸款,集中在Q1發放,因此推估2011年9~10月就是高危險期。

中國股市早已是調控政策下的犧牲品,即使沒有危機爆發,也無國際巨鱷狙擊,本身就會持續滑落。對中國的基金投資早該保守,未來若3個月Shibor急速飆破8%時,應該是整個亞洲新興市場投資的關鍵逃命時刻!

金價升穿1800美元 交易所加期金保證金

hk.news.yahoo.com


芝加商業期貨交易所調高黃金期貨保證金超過22%,每份合約保證金由4500美元,調高至5500美元。

受到避險資金追捧,金價屢創新高,紐約12月期金就創下每盎士1817.6美元的新高。


匯豐瘦身美國業務套現

匯豐在自救, 枉有人視為保護小股東來解畫 !

文匯報

香港文匯報訊 (記者 蔡競文)致力削支及重組架構的礇控(0005)昨日落實以327億美元(約2,550億港元)將美國部分信用卡業務售予CapitalOne Financial Corporation,預料可錄得24億美元(約187億港元)稅後利潤,並令集團核心第一級資本充足比率增加60個基點至11.4%。有關交易料明年 上半年完成。

 礇控行政總裁歐智華在通告稱,這次交易雖然短期內有攤薄作用,但將使集團的風險加權資產降低最多達400億美元,此金額連同估計出售事項帶來的除稅後利潤24億美元,讓集團在日後得以重新調配資本。

 他續指,該交易是延續執行集團於5月11日的集團投資者日所公布之策略,就是集中力量,使集團的美國業務能夠滿足工商業務、環球銀行及資本市場、零售銀行及財富管理以及在岸的環球私人銀行客戶的國際金融需要。

資本充足率料升至11.4%

 礇控指,據6月30日數字計算,出售美國信用卡業務估計使礇豐根據英國監管規則計算的綜合風險加權資產減少最多400億美元,連同出售事項帶來的除稅後利潤約24億美元,將使礇豐於6月30日的綜合核心第一級資本充足比率由10.8%增加60個基點至11.4%。

 通告稱,是次出售的業務是該行的債券承保美國信用卡及商戶優惠卡業務,包括客戶貸款結欠總額,連同 若干房地產及其他資產與負債,但美國礇豐銀行的信用卡計劃不在此列。美國礇豐銀行將繼續向客戶提供信用卡服務,同時美國繼續是集團的主要市場,配合集團重 點拓展國際業務策略。

 在被出售的業務上,涉及的礇豐員工有機會加盟買方。出售代價是按客戶貸款結欠總額8.75%的溢價來釐定,據6月30日數字計算,代價為327億美元。

美195分行甩手套78億

 在月初的中期業績會上,礇控宣布一系列削支及業務重組計劃,除計劃裁員2.5萬人外,出售及重組業 務亦為削支的另一招數。該行在業績公布前夕率先交代已將美國當地近一半分行、主要分布在紐約的195間非策略性分行售予First Niagara FinancialGroup,套現10億美元。

 截至上半年,礇控已結束俄羅斯和波蘭的零售銀行業務,以及出售三項保險業務。歐智華指,該行計劃在20個或更多的地區退出或終止零售銀行業務。

 礇控昨由於港交所網頁中午故障而於午後開市前停牌。停牌前報69元,升3.916%。